Comments

Great to find such an informative blog Keith and a valuable lesson as we look at establishing new dedicated packing lines for our innovative water in a paper carton - well done to you and thanks for your ongoing education.

Neil (aka 'waterguy')
www.justdrinkingwater.com

Posted by: Neil T on July 1, 2008

Cars are next. If they build new factories, the same sort of principle could apply. One operator per line, with quality control and inventory specialists checking key points. All inventory moves automated, no handoffs.

Posted by: Ed Evans on July 1, 2008

good article

Posted by: BILL (VISITOR) on July 1, 2008

I agree.

Posted by: Joseph Profeta on July 1, 2008

Keith,

I have been worried for years about the continuing slide downward of our educational system. In the late 1960s, 2/3 of the graduate students in Aeronautical Engineering at the University of Minnesota were foreign students and they were nearly all much better prepared than the US students. I haven't noticed our educational system improving since then. I would be very surprised if it wasn't much worse. Certainly comparison of results for students in American primary schools versus other countries suggest that teaching of math and science has slipped to 3rd world status. We will end up with our economy like that if we don't do some massive changes to our education system as you suggest.

Posted by: Bill Brooks on July 1, 2008

They are Communists who do not adhere to many international rules of procedure. As long as the government oversees a business, the playing field is not level. China does not demonstrate Honor when so many technologies are taken or copied without compensation.

Posted by: Gordon Alexander on July 1, 2008

Having been to China twice in the last year to visit mold shops, molders and assembly plants, I would say that the article even understates the threat. The skills level in China are increasing almost as fast as they are eroding in the US. Reputable manufacturers have quality sytems far advanced over the US average and the disreputable suppliers are eliminated by their competition.

Posted by: Al Wade on July 1, 2008

I agree that denial won't work and that fear is a good motivator but we need investors who are willing to put the investment back into US mfg. and not outsource everything to China. There's too much emphasis on short term gain - some companies are now seeing the folly of this and bringing work back to the US due to high shipping and fuel costs and locating mfg. closer to the end custopmers. It can be done with patience, innovation, good investments in capital and people, and hard work.

Posted by: Glenn Whiteside on July 1, 2008

I agree with you that China does seem to be a huge up and comer and that yes we do experience a rise in prices on certain commodities. The higher demand obviously drives their prices up. Aside from non-renewables, I see this probably peaking and then evening out. China will still maintain a demand, but they will be able to meet most of their own demand similar to how other countries do. Really, with non-renewables the continual price increase in inevitable. We need to simply develop technologies to obtain similar results using different methods.

Posted by: Chase Connors on July 1, 2008

Our worst enemy is ourselves. Our educational system is deteriorating as we speak; our politicans may have good intentions; but their execution is criminal; our industries are short sighted and devoid of clarity and focus of the future; our industrial leaders and politicans sell their souls to foreign profits and interests; our children are spoiled, obese, media/games fixated and lazy; our military is sent on hopelessly undefined missions or ill conceived plans; our morality and ethics are pretty well gone and we blame others for our folly and ill fortune.

Posted by: Paul Zepf on July 1, 2008

Keith,

What the U.S. lacks is the leadership. The space program and the Manhattan Project are two perfect examples. Massive undertakings driven from the top.

Our leaders have failed to prepare for the gas crisis we saw coming in 1974!

And they have failed to see this shift of fundamental values away from engineering and manufacturing to the entertainment industry.

Making stuff is certainly less glamorous than being on a reality TV show. But it keeps food on the table.

Can the private sector do this alone?

Posted by: Jim Chrzan on July 1, 2008

For the sake of getting stuff cheaper mainly pushed by the big boxes, Walmart, Target Home Depot and alike we have given away the base of our middle class. Time for everyone to wake up. It's Okay to buy less, pay more and save American middle class. Make it in America and make it better.

Posted by: lou Fischer on July 1, 2008

Dear Keith,

I am all for revitalization of our infrastucture and manufacturing capabilities. But Inner Mongolia is not the area to cause us to have any fear. We should be glad they are modernizing. China is connected to the U.S. as a trading partner and is a competitor but also has many problems to overcome as an emerging economy with a large population to feed and employ. Please don't play the fear card - rather lets work on healthy competition and a desire to improve our living standards as well as those of our trading partners.

Posted by: Jack Aguero on July 1, 2008

I think that we have become a complacent society driven to avoid hard work and are so pompous as to believe that China can't possibly compete with the good ole US of A. We are in for a big surprise in the not too distant future. Our dollar is sliding, our debt is out of control, and we are oblivious to the competition from hard working, highly populated China. Unfortunately, those of us who see what is happening are literally powerless to change the direction of the country. It would require hard work, which, if you refer to sentence one above, we are loath to become familiar with again. It took the USA 3 generations to achieve world number one status and if it takes China 3 generations, we should be seeing that happen in the next 30 years. Look out USA...it will be a very sad day for us. It could happen overnight....the US dollar no longer becomes the currency of favor...and that my friends will be all she wrote! Rome was once the center of the universe, the USA is now, but we are quickly sliding.

Posted by: Frank on July 1, 2008

I agree, but can we continue to purchase from them with the the high price of petroleum???

Posted by: Steffen on July 1, 2008

Could not agree more. I believe the issue is urgent, but no one in the political or financial world is standing up to sound the alarm. Profits are being taken on the short side, however the long term effects of this restructuring in the global economy are going to leave the US in a learch. Unfortunately, I don't see any help coming out of Washington any time soon, including Novemeber. Who's going to put the stake in the ground?

Posted by: Les Harrell on July 1, 2008

Keith, You are right on target. One thing that I would add is that we (west) have and continue to hand over the know-how to China by out-sourcing the manufacturing and now even development for a meager return of lower prices or costs. This contributes to the speed with which they gain access to technology and process know-how which would otherwise cost them billions and take years to develop on their own.

Posted by: Navin Ajmera on July 1, 2008

I totally agree with this point of view. We even tend to disregard any sign of productivity within the chinese economy system. Furthermore, when we see a low price product from China we automatically claim "this operation is subsidy by government" instead of recognizing productivity improvements.

Posted by: Francisco Carpenter on July 1, 2008

You are right on. But to bring a strong suggestion on how to get capital to develop in this way you should be supporting the FairTax (HB 25 and SB 1025)! We need that kind of adjustment with this kind of threat!

Thanks,

Denis

Posted by: Denis Kluba on July 1, 2008

Keith, we the american people and companies have gotten stupid. We are selling out to forign companies and letting China, Korea and Japan dominate our manufaturing systems. Americans believe Toyota is quality. This is not true as I know of an automotive dealer that had both Toyota and GMC, Buick and Pontiac as part of his dealerships and they had to trade buildings because of the larger amount of service needed for the Toyota.
We are we Americans so stupid and why did our American companies not say no to our dealerships being able to sell forign cars. If Toyota and others had to set up a dealership structure it would have been a much longer process to domenate the industry.
GM, Ford and others were lacking in foresight (the Hummer, Expedition, Yukon, and other large cars or suv's)
Corrugated and steel plants manufactured parts in china for packaging machines. It will not end because we are a people that look at today and not the long range effects.
We need to stop this movement now!! YOU MAY NOT PRINT THIS WITH MY NAME ATTACHED!!

Posted by: Anonymous on July 1, 2008

I have been three times to China. We are opening a office there. While I have seen poor quality, this too will pass. The people of China are very much like us at their root. Today's China is the USA in the early 1900's, but now they can make use of 2008's technology. As the article suggests, we should plan to compete NOW!

Posted by: Brett Truett on July 1, 2008

Keith, Hi!

You can put as much financial effort as you like to put the clock back but you cannot stop that change. You can only slow it down their progress. It is the law of nature that what goes up must come down. Historically there was a time when the nations in the East were thriving and the West was living in the bewilderment. Then West thrived in the last so many centuries and now it is the time for the East to go up. And remember you cannot beat natural laws on which the whole Universe operates. Furthermore, there is no incentive or motive for the Western youth to stand up and be counted. The present Western generation has not seen the wars, the deprivation, or poverty. They are just busy in having a good time in pubs and clubs and sex. They are just not bothered about what goes on in the world domain. The youth of the East have seen all the worst in their lives and therefore they would move mountains to achieve a better life. They have the motivation, determination, and incentive to beat the West. And they will do it. Remember it is the citizens of the nations which make their countries great or small. Now the law of nature is on the side of the East and the societies in the West are becoming decadent - a great advantage to the East. You cannot stop this trend.

Posted by: Om Khurana on July 2, 2008

Having travelled to China several times, to see the exhibitions and visited some factories, and make a comparison with some international equipment exhibitions in German (Achema and Interpack), though for the innovation and invention of new equipment and systems, China is still left behind, but the gap is becoming narrow. With the learning spirit and supporting from their government, total of new scholars and educated people in China are bigger than Europe and US. In some article in a professional periodical mentioned within a few years time, China will have more enginers than US. Based on my own experience with a Chinese friend, he is willing to learn,open-minded accept other people idea so that he could have a better life, work more productive, like and agree to be critized for his wrongly decision, and all he is doing for continuous improvement for career, company and the nation. Year after year his English, I notice, is improving very much. And most of the scholar Chinese do the same way.

Paulus

Posted by: Paulus Gunawan on July 2, 2008

Amen. A coherent national policy is essential on the priorities which you have suggested and pushing for that is one important front. While our trade associations do some of that, our democracy is supposed to be participative, or at least it functions best when it approaches that. I have been disheartened to hear from friends and aquaintences that only a very few have ever attempted to offer comments or engage their congressional REPRESENTATIVES in a discussion on any matter.Wringing our hands and hoping for rescue by unknown better angels amongst us is a blueprint for disaster.Perhaps writing this will help to light a fire under me, because I am as guilty of preaching only to the choir as most of us.
Mark Singer
BioMediCon

Posted by: Mark Singer on July 2, 2008

You are right on target, however I think even you may well be understating the severity of the situation. They have, for all intents and purposes, an unlimited, cheap and dedicated work force. They have not tied thier own hands with the environmental rules and regulations we have. They are currently doing exploratory drilling for oil in the Gulf of Mexico which we have, through legislation, denied ourselves.
We, the peoples of the "Western Civilizations" need to keep in mind the ancient philosophy of the Chineese people. They always have and will see themselves as superior to others and still maintain their belief they will eventually conquer and rule the entire world. In thier unbroken history of what, over 4,000 years, they have learned well the lesson of the cycles of rise and fall of people and nations. They have been on the down cycle for a long time now, but like the tide they are beginning the up-swing of the cycle. And like the tide we can try to find a way to work with it or be caught up and swept away.
Even if we act immediately it may be impossible to actually keep from being swept away. Momuntem is hard to stop, and right now they have it.

Posted by: Steve Rutherford on July 2, 2008

Our best action should be:
learn chinese and compete.

Posted by: Andrew S. on July 2, 2008

I completely agree!

Posted by: Miriam Letter on July 4, 2008

Interesting, and on a different note.
Yes, we need to begin to compete immediatly. Take the Nintendo games away and teach your own children instead of blaming the schools. Take them to not only your workplace but also your freinds place of employment. Show them what they may end up doing in the future and prepare them. It could be manufacturing, home building, or whatever. Only a dozen or so people will get to write Playstation games, so they need to be prepared for the other contribution they will need to make. Exposure will surely create interest. Sitting at home and blaming the school because your child "can't do math" is not something our society should be willing to accept. Look inside first for the failures you see. Do your part and send them out prepared. You can see that this is what the Chinese are doing, and it is starting to work. Anyone who has worked with a Chinese person has seen the motivation that puts many Americans to shame. Take responsibility for what you can change, and prepare our next generation with motivation and education. You cant change the economy singlehandedly, but you can make a difference.

Posted by: Gordon Erickson on July 4, 2008

keith:
We can't find any young employees who are not on drugs, or who have above 8th grade skills. The U.S. is be-coming a nation of morons. The copper mine outside of our town has an average employee age of 58! Heaven help us !

Posted by: Jed A. Peeler on July 5, 2008

I have been teaching printing and packaging subjects in China for a number of years after retiring. There are a number of reasons why the Chinese are moving so rapidly modernizing their industries, and it is just not the capital from the West that feeds the hungry country of 1.3 billion.

At my last teaching stint at the U. of Wuhan, I was asked to teach subjects such as Sustainability, Standards, Communication Technologies, and Environmental Issues for my package engineering students. They have enough classes in math, science, computers,etc. but my Dean wanted me to expose them to subjects not normally taught at the school. Keep in mind that these students go to class 7 days a week, the semester is 20 weeks vs. l6 or so in the U.S., sleep 4 to 8 in their dorms which are not heated or cooled, have no hot water then go to class in buildings which are also not heated nor cooled and you start to get the drift. They are pretty tough and not wrapped up in parties, football or basketball games, fraternities nor sororities...but they are wrapped up in their classes and getting high grades. Quite a difference than their counterparts here in the U.S.
The point I am trying to make is they have a goal, both personal as well as helping China succeed in the world. They display an eagerness to be successful that far outshines typical U.S. or for that matter European college students.
This emphasis on hard work, committement to succeed, and not being overly concerned with the normal life style of 20 somethings here in the U.S., is what sets them apart
and contributes mightly to the superheated development of their country.
Are they any smarter than U.S. students, maybe yes and maybe no, do they work harder than U.S. students, most definitely, but we all know that just working hard by itself is no guarantee of success; what sets them apart in my opinion is this overriding desire to succeed and it can be seen in the major cities as well as beginning to be seen in the rural areas.
China, in my opinion, reminds me of the U.S. in the 50's; returning WW II veterans were eager to go to college and earn their degrees and establish a better life for them and their families. Industry and business in general were also eager to hire them to get the benefit of their knowledge and increase the bottom line.
A similar scene is being played out in China today and the world rather than being overly concerned
that the Chinese
will completely usurp the rest of us should look in the mirror and see that history does repeat itself.

Posted by: Regis J. Delmontagne on July 13, 2008

Agreed, but the threat is understated. You're correct, Jed: "Heaven help us!". Let's pray the coming World Emperor (and it will be Chinese) is Good and not Evil.

Posted by: Dave W. on July 14, 2008

Western culture has got down a path of self destruction. Let's not blame others for our sad state. Government on Federal, state and local must truly partner with business and 1st recognize the "state of the union" and as you mention, develop quality programs are par with Apollo & Mercury. The USA needs to turn inward for a while to fix our problems before we can continue to "save" the world.
Let's keep the messages buring...Real leaders wanted!!

Posted by: Phil on July 23, 2008

This is dead on, we are losing the battle and the Chinese will in short time be the world leader in science and technology. I witnessed this first hand on a visit to several factories. These people are hungry and want to be world leaders in everything they do. There are not doing anything that we can not do only they do it faster and tackle problems with eagerness to make China succeed. The Chinese hard work and commitment should not be overlooked.
We need to encourage our children and students now to step away from the video games and start experimenting in the sciences or before long we will all be working for a Chinese company and there will be no manufacturing jobs or high technology jobs left in this country.

Posted by: Pete Mellone on July 25, 2008