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Why demographics will drive your packaging automation

March 26, 2007

Indications are that capital spending for packaging automation is on the rise. PMMI reports increased sales among their members; automation companies are reporting a brisk business environment; and machine suppliers that I have talked to report both increasing backlogs and forecasts. One reason often cited for this is workforce demographics.

Demography is not meteorology. Whereas the weather man's predictions are clouded in probability, the demographer's predictions are absolute. I once heard of a banker who didn't understand this. He challenged a demographer about how he knew his predictions were correct. The answer was straight forward: "Sir, one cannot create a 26 year old".

The baby boomers are retiring, the generation Y's are not swarming into manufacturing, and in parts of the country, unemployment rates are under 4%; the rate is only 4.5% nationally. With packagers having difficulty filling job openings, many are turning to automation. While solving one problem, this may create a secondary workforce issue; but this one is solvable. Automation creates the need for skilled empoyees, employees that are even harder to find. But, whereas we cannot create a 26 year old, we can convert a 26 year old from an unskilled employee to a skilled one through a commitment to education.

Some packagers may wait for a workforce crisis to develop before they consider automation. In advance of the crisis, they may find justification difficult. Some may not be aware of the impending crisis and others may just be hoping that the demographer is wrong. Some may be waiting for the government's new immigration plan. How likely is that?

I don't recommend waiting for the crisis to develop in your operations. Acting under crisis increases risk, cost and delivery schedule. Acting under crisis eliminates the possibility for proper planning and will result in a secondary challenge if skilled and experienced maintenance staffers aren't already on the payroll.

I do recommend acting on the basis of a well-thought-out Technology Plan. Nearly every company will have a written business plan. Most will have a written marketing plan and many will have capital plans and HR plans. It is less likely that your company has a written technology plan that links to the overall business plan, guides packaging automation and assures adequate employee technical training and development.

Do you have such a plan? What steps are you taking to address this within your organization? Why can't the US attract workers into manufacturing? There are good jobs in packaging plants. Do the robust apprentice programs in Euroean plants give them an edge? Let's share thoughts on this.

The demographics are there. Automation is a valid and likely response. Plan for it.

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Comments


Yes, Keith, we're seeing tight labor markets in some areas of the country. Packaging automation makes even more sense in these conditions.

Posted by: Lance Bell on March 26, 2007


Agreed. Additionnally, automation is exportable: see Germany, which maintains a trade surplus with Asian countries
Michel

Posted by: Michel Philippart on March 26, 2007


Automation is a must. But, the availablilty of having trained personnel in manufacturing remains a larger challenge for U S industry.

Posted by: Anonymous on March 26, 2007


I agree with the assertion of skilled personnel as a missing commodity in our current population base, but I believe that you are missing other demographics which will fill the demand. In the US we graduate a high proportion of Lawyers to Engineers. I too would want to be a lawyer instead of an engineer if I knew that my salary prospects were 3 times as great as if I stay an Engineer. So I say let the demographics continue and eventually engineers will be rewarded for their expertise, the market will grant us higher salaries, and at that time more people will want to create as engineers do rather than defending something already created as lawyers do.

Posted by: David Arens on March 26, 2007


I agree but a technology plan has to happen in parallel with the HR staffing, training and development and succession plan because you need skilled people for the new technology. The hard part about a technology plan is that the half life of technology is 2 years so many times what a company may plan to do doesn't even exist. I'd love to hear more about how some companies do their technology plan given the short life span of technology.

Posted by: Nancy Cobb on March 26, 2007


We agree. Labour in regional areas is extremely tight, especially given higher wage offer by the resource sector which is drawing traditional employees away from the manufacturing. Another reason is to remain competitive in the "Level playing field" created years ago. We experience increased competition from overseas suppliers, and making our plant more efficient is the only way to offset. At least a machine can only break down, and is at work when you want it (most of the time). Wish the same could be said for some of the other staff available in the labour pool. Sad but true.

Posted by: Julian Lancaster-Smith on March 26, 2007


I haven't run into that problem yet. I'm a small ice cream mfr., but I see the need to automate, at least partially. But the cost seems to be extreme, and it looks like I'll have to get an ice cream depositor custom made. So my automation will be slow.
Bob Bada, Gelati di Capri

Posted by: Bob Bada on March 26, 2007


Keith Responds:

Yes, there are many reasons to automate, and we will talk of them as the blog develops. Justification is not an art but a science, and we'll talk about that too.

I certainly agree that a technology plan must be fully integrated witht he HR plan, and in my experience, the technology plan provides the training, development and succession requirements that form the basis of the HR plan. If the HR plan doesn't pick up on these issues, then the technology plan must provide the details.

Products may have a half-life of 2 years, but technologies have a much longer half-life. PLC's have been around since the 70's. Factory networking was in place in the 80's and is still only applied in about 1/3 of packagers' factories and then typically only on the newest lines. Servoes have been applied to packaging machinery since the early 90's and probably haven't made 25% penetration as of yet.

We spend way too much time and money providing training on products and way too little time providing education on technologies.

International standards play a role here as well. Technology plans should focus on standards, technologies, and business goals and should rarely mention vendors or products.

Posted by: Keith Campbell on March 27, 2007


I read your article and I think it really hits home. So much that I wanted to ask your permission to feature it on a page of our web site. Our current web site will be changing and part of our new format will be to feature news and upcoming events in the market place. We're a distributor of industrial packaging machinery and commodities and are located in London, Ontario Canada.

Posted by: Patricia Clute on March 27, 2007


While I agree that automation may defer the impact of lower production efficiencies, I also believe automation is simply the 'tip of the iceberg'.
The hidden costs of identifying/training/hiring and retaining technically competent employees, and keeping them current, will play a larger role than the initial outlay for capital equipment.
The ability of the equipment to adjust to new products will require more complex (and expensive) technologies, driving the expertise requirement even higher.

Posted by: Chuck on March 27, 2007


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Keith Campbell
About Keith Campbell
Leaders learn from the past while looking to the future - and bring both to bear on the here and now. This is the philosophy that has steered Keith Campbell's 30+ years in manufacturing. It has worked for him in operations, maintenance, engineering, R&D, education, consulting and professional organizations--and now he's putting it to work for you--taking you to the edge of his thoughts on packaging operations.
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